SpaceX went public with a mere 4.3% of the shares of the company available to trade. This is a huge part of the reason why the price is shooting up. There is significantly more demand than there is supply... for now.
The remaining shares become available to trade in forthcoming lockup periods, with Employees and other insiders being able to divest first. Institutional investors and Elon can sell starting in 2027.
1. Q2 Earnings Release: about 20%, probably in September.
2. Q2 Performance: about 10%, depending on SpaceX trading at least 30% above the $135 IPO price for at least 5 of the 10 trading days leading up to Q2 earnings.
3. Post-IPO + 70 days (late August): about 7%
4. Post-IPO + 90 days (early September): about 7%
5. Post-IPO + 105 days (late September): about 7%
6. Post-IPO + 120 days (early October): about 7%
7. Post-IPO + 135 days (late October): about 7%
8. Q3 Earnings Release: about 28%
9. Post-IPO + 180 days (early December): everything else (from employees)
10. Institutions (August 2027): about 1.76 billion shares
11. Elon Musk (June 2027): about 5.45 billion shares
Keep all that in mind if you're buying into the euphoria. Supply and demand are the laws of physics in the world of markets.