A bunch of people on Polymarket are celebrating the Robotaxi rollout in Austin, but the underlying data points to this being a company in deep distress. The current valuation of Tesla is irrational, and IMO absurd. Tesla's market share has plummeted to a near eight-year low, dropping below 40% for the first time since 2017, as international rivals with newer, more attractive offerings are eating Elon's lunch. This declining market share is a direct result of the outdated product line. The Cybertruck has proven to be a flop. And the refreshed Model Y isn't enough to satisfy demand for new models. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's political antics and his questionable focus on Robotaxi are alienating the core customer base and diverting attention from the fundamental business - making sexy cars real people actually want to buy. The EV industry itself is facing a slowdown and increased competition, which has forced Tesla to cut prices, in turn squeezing its once-lucrative profit margins. The proposed $1 trillion pay package for Musk, which is contingent on an $8.5 trillion valuation, is a fantastical bet on a company that's failing to innovate in its core business. The confluence of brand damage, market saturation, and a lack of compelling new products suggests the massive correction we've all been looking forward to inevitable. I know this company defies gravity, but there is simply no way for the market to continue acting irrationally forever. This has to pop.